AEX analysis

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Last time I wrote on the AEX as follows:

To conclude I can say that on a longer term basis it looks like that the AEX can continue its rise to 480pts (the 76.4% Fibonacci correction level or 560pts (the previous top of 2007). However, if the breakthrough of the longterm descending trendline and 61.8% Fibonacci trendline in the monthly chart appears to be false, which can not be disregarded looking at the weekly- and dailychart, a fall to 340-280 is still possible.
To conclude I can say that on a longer term basis it looks like that the AEX can continue its rise to 480pts (the 76.4% Fibonacci correction level or 560pts (the previous top of 2007). However, if the breakthrough of the longterm descending trendline and 61.8% Fibonacci trendline in the monthly chart appears to be false, which can not be disregarded looking at the weekly- and dailychart, a fall to 340-280 is still possible.

Today we have the following situation: The AEX indeed continued its rise towards the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level around 480 points. Until today the high is 466 points but I expect more to come.

Looking at the monthly chart below I see that the AEX has left the correction triangle and that D and E have been set in resp. March and September 2011. This means that a period of impulse rising has started since then. By the way, this does not mean that there will not occur some serious corrections along the way. I think that when current impulse towards 480 has ended, a correction of 38.2/61.8% (based on the rise as from September 2011) is possible. That could bring the AEX to roughly 390-340 points. These Fibonacci levels will be brought in by me as soon as a top on current impulse wave has been set.

aexmaand150216

 

Weekly chart:

aexweek150216

Looking at the weekly chart I see that the end of wave 5 current impulse wave should be coming close. The trend-channel towards 5 around 76.4% Fibonacci level on monthly basis is slowly narrowing. If my counting is right yet another correction towards 450-445 could happen followed by a last rise heading for the forementioned 480 level. After that the correction to 390-340 as mentioned above should be in the pipeline.

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