Maandelijks archief: januari 2015

DAX analysis

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Last time I wrote as follows:

When this support fails coming weeks and the level of the top of wave I (9460) is touched, a longer term top has been set already. But if the wave V of 5 has yet to come, the end year rally may continue as from today up to 10300-10500 range.
When this support fails coming weeks and the level of the top of wave I (9460) is touched, a longer term top has been set already. But if the wave V of 5 has yet to come, the end year rally may continue as from today up to 10300-10500 range.

Today the DAX shows following:

DAXweek150126

The move from early October to end November can be counted as impulse wave I. After finishing correction wave II early January, impulse wave III is now on the way. The shape of this last wave V of 5 still needs the be formed and is therefore uncertain. Nice is to see how the red trendline on the RSI has been re-tested during correction wave II.  As target I see the DAX reaching the level of 11000 before starting a bigger correction towards 8000-6500 range based on Fibonacci retracement levels on the impulse wave started September 2011.

DAXweek150126b

EUR/USD ANALYSIS

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I start with my previous chart and expectations dated 28 November 2014:

"I expect the EURO to find temporarily support around current level due to ascending blue trendline. As soon as this support breaks, levels of 120/115 cts can be expected, if not lower."
“I expect the EURO to find temporarily support around current level due to ascending blue trendline. As soon as this support breaks, levels of 120/115 cts can be expected, if not lower.”

Today we have following situation:

eurusd150121

To be honest, the temporarily support on the ascending blue trendline was very temporarily which shows that the downforce is big. Now the support has to come from the horizontal line based on the bottom of December 2005. I will watch any bottom forming very closely between 115 and 110cts. Because after this a strong rally should occur as the EUR/USd is in a zigzag correction phase after the high in July 2008. Reverting!